The impact of climate change on sustainable food production in Africa

1.0 Introduction
Discussions on climate change are becoming increasingly important due to the growing scale of devastation and the growing evidence from empirical research by eminent scientists, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change (IPCC), on the serious impacts of climate change on the planet. Climate change is transforming the world we know and want. Our land, housing and food are at risk. With about a billion people living in poverty, it is the biggest threat to the fight against hunger. In Africa, the effects of climate change are visible in several sectors, including agriculture, mining, energy, tourism and wildlife, manufacturing, among others. The impacts economy and society are numerous and evident in most parts of the continent through increasing natural disasters, including extreme droughts and floods that result in food insecurity, increased internal migration related to climate, temperatures extreme conditions and poor labor productivity, mainly due to thermal stress during warmer seasons in some parts of the continent. For Africa, the impact of climate change and its associated global warming can be extremely serious. With its large landmass, Africa will experience a temperature rise that will be one and a half times more than the average temperature rise temperature experienced worldwide. Evidence suggests that a single degree increase in Africa will cause a 65% loss of current capacity continent’s corn growth and an estimated 20% drop in production. Africa also has large coastal areas at sea level or marginally above sea level of the sea. A warming of two degrees will produce a significant increase in sea level that will flood many coastal communities and destroy much of the coastal infrastructure of Africa. At the same time, a wide range of environmental degradation. The increasing impact of the negative impacts of climate change has increased. Africa is also more vulnerable because it has fewer resources to deal with the results of climate change.
2.0 Problem Statement
The African continent is the second most populous continent in the world, with over 60% of its population living in rural areas. It is poor, little industrialized and has low rates of economic development. Its wealth represents 1% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the GDP per capita is around US $ 915.00. The main problems are: hunger, epidemics (mainly HIV) and ethnic conflicts. Social indicators are also not good, with a population of approximately 40% illiterate and a child mortality rate that reaches 100-200 thousand deaths for every 1000 births (the highest in the world). In addition, the continent is home to 1/3 of the world population in conditions of extreme poverty and 7 of the 10 countries with the greatest inequality in the world are located on the African continent. The Hunger Map published by the World Food Program (WFP) in 201861, presents climate variability as one of the key points of hunger in the world and provides data on the prevalence of malnutrition in the total population (%) in the period from 2015 to 2017. Thus, this article aims to explore the links between climate change and food production. It thus proposes an analytical structure to identify mechanisms of connection between the two dimensions, with which it seeks to characterize and systematize the impacts on food in Africa (Branca and Perelli 2020).
3.0 Literature Review
Agriculture does not live well with intense climatic phenomena. Droughts and torrential rains are capable of destroying a crop’s crop. Throughout history, humanity has learned to live with some adverse weather events. However, these events are changing and this directly affects food production, essential for the survival of the more than 7 billion humans who inhabit the earth. (Schilling, Hertig et al. 2020). In southern Africa, in several areas of Zimbabwe, there is the lowest level of rainfall since 1981, with 5.5 million people currently suffering from severe food insecurity. The corn-rich region of Zambia is now dry: exports have ceased, resulting in 2.3 million people suffering from hunger in the country. Meanwhile, the situation is also worsening in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Namibia and Zimbabwe, while in South Africa there have been cases of suicides among farmers. The drought is also hitting East Africa and the Horn of Africa hard, particularly in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia (Branca and Perelli 2020).
The Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CGIAR), a global partnership that brings together organizations that research on food security, analyzed the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focusing on the impacts that will be felt by small farmers, ranchers and fishermen. Based on the IPCC document, the program prepared a review note, in which it begins analyzing the state of the climate in which we find ourselves today, then proceeds to a forecast of what this production will be like 15 years from now and still looks at a possible stage the planet in 2050. All of this focused on impacts on food production. In relation to Africa, the main negative forecasts are focused on the Northeast. This is because the expectation is that, in the coming years, the drought will be more severe in the region, which will further affect food production and any attempt to raise cattle. As a consequence, the low supply of food will cause prices to rise. Check below the main impacts in the country and in the world.
The impacts of climate change are not homogeneously distributed, since the tropical areas of the planet are the most exposed and also those that suffer the most from the number of people who already live-in food insecurity limits. The climate, which affects the food issue of the entire planet, has more severe consequences for poor people, making the availability of food, access to food and the stability of the food supply more difficult over time (Nhemachena, Nhamo et al. 2020). Several agricultural areas are already suffering from the impact of climate change, as can be seen in the production of corn and wheat, for example. On the other hand, rice and soy have not yet shown any drastic changes in their yield.
In tropical regions, such as Africa, livestock is already beginning to suffer threats, due to the sensitivity to temperature, the water crisis and the availability of food for animals (basically the lack of pasture). Thus, local economies, such as the Northeast of Africa, are already on the list of risk of climate change (Francisco Ribeiro and Camargo Rodriguez 2020).
4.0 Research question
• Does food production depend on climate change in Africa?
5.0 Research aims and objectives
• To find out the climate change impact and circumstance on food production
• To find out the sustainability factors related to food production
• To find out the ways of improving nutrition
• To find out he the importance of climate change in achieving food security
6.0 Research Methodology
This chapter defines tools and techniques for data collection and defines the statistical measures that has been used for data analysis. Considering the project objectives, we will then carry out an investigation work that will aim to answer the questions we asked previously. First, it will be presented a theoretical framework, where some of the concepts will be developed most important to this work and will try to clarify some of the less important aspects evidence of the relationship between climate change and its impacts on food in Africa.
6.1 Type of Research
The Type of this research is quantitative. There is a quantitative issue under examination, as the study would analyze the question by producing qualitative results or results which can be translated into meaningful numbers that can be derived from a broader group of tests.
6.2 Data Collection Sources
• Primary sources of data collection are employees of the UN and people living in Africa.
• Secondary sources of data collection were considered company records (but unable to get it from company), published data, and/or previous researches, etc.
6.3 Data Collection Tools/Instruments
Electronic Questionnaire from Google Docs Form is used as a tool for data collection. For the purpose of conducting this research a pre-tested questionnaire of Yurtkorub (2013) as used in the study of climate change and food producton, is used for collecting the required data on this research (Jalagat 2017).
The selection of tool is made for the easy and accuracy of the results. Previously tested questionnaire content is worthy material.
6.4 Research sampling
• Sample size is 20% of the targeted population, which is approximately n=50
• Sample Frame is number of all the executives (managerial and non-managerial) which is approximately 250 employees at Daewoo Lahore Terminal.
• Random sampling technique have been be used because this is one of the preferred ways of sampling. A computer-generated list could be used form random sampling.
6.5 Recruitment process
• Targeted population are people living in African areas were hunger index is alarming and situation of emergency has been observed and subject to availability of UN employee working there. Total targeted population size is 250.
• Unit of analysis is at 02 group levels, people living in Africa and employee of UN.
• Data to be collected from departmental level of UN organization such as operations.
6.6 Data Processing, Analysis Techniques and Interpretation
For data collection we requested UN employee for providing the official email address of targeted population under sample size. However Electronic Questionnaire from Google Docs forms was prepared and link was send to the respondents to fill and submit. We received an overwhelming response and sample frame exceeded from 50 to 67 respondents. But for processing, the data was filtered to most relevant 55 respondents.
Secondary options like personal visiting and group meetings were not considered aiming prevention from COVID-19. Due to nature of the research type and questionnaire, privacy of employees to be taken as guaranteed. For respondent’s personal information questionnaire had gender, designation and email address columns. Respondents usually responded while using their personal email id.
6.7 Method for extracting, processing and Codification of the data
In our data there are two variables “climate change and food production” both are measured from same questionnaire by using likert scale. This bipolar scaling helped measuring positive and negative values for both variables. All the levels were giving points for numeric data collection. For stress, option and points are (1) Strongly Disagree (2) Disagree (3) Neither Agree nor Disagree (4) Agree (5) strongly Agree. Whereas for performance option and points are (5) Excellent (4) Good (3) Average (2) Below Average (1) Poor. Earlier this approach was used by (Jalagat 2017, Vijayan 2017, Deng, Guo et al. 2019).
The extracted MS excel spreadsheet from Google forms having all the required data from respondents is used. It is further sorted and numerical data is manually entered for analysis and graphs.
6.8 Software used for processing of the data
MS Excel and SPSS 27 has been used to analyze the selected data. Cronbach alpha, frequency, descriptive statistics and correlation and regression analysis have been done to analyze the collected data from the respondents.
6.9 Statistical technique
Mean, standard deviation and regression analysis have been being done to analyze the collected data from the respondents.
7.0 Statement in relation to the ethical approval and the ethical issues
Ethical issues related to plagiarism, maintaining secrecy of the participant in data collection or those people and employees who would contribute to fill up research questionnaire would be maintained and considered at high importance. Other ethical issues related to public awareness regarding hunger in African areas and humble people who dislike showing off their bad condition would be considered as per human and ethical respect considerations.
8.0 Budget
Project budget consist of university semester fee for this project, connecting and finding those people and employees for data collection questionnaire and those expenditure which could be considered to pay those people who deserve. Transportation cost and personal expenses would be estimated on monthly basis expenses for six months of project durations.
9.0 Timeline
Minimum time required for project completion would be six months, paper work includes introduction, setting up research gap. This task would consist of at least 1.5 months (45 days) for studying complete latest literature on selected topic. Data collection from African people and UN employees would be a tough task. There might be about 2 months (60 days). Application of statical procedures and data analysis upon collected surveys would take 2.5 months (75 days). This way project would be completed at least within 6 months
• Branca, G. and C. Perelli (2020). “‘Clearing the air’: common drivers of climate-smart smallholder food production in Eastern and Southern Africa.” Journal of Cleaner Production 270: 121900.
• Deng, J., et al. (2019). “How job stress influences job performance among Chinese healthcare workers: a cross-sectional study.” Environmental health and preventive medicine 24(1): 2.
• Francisco Ribeiro, P. and A. V. Camargo Rodriguez (2020). “Emerging advanced technologies to mitigate the impact of climate change in Africa.” Plants 9(3): 381.
• Jalagat, R. (2017). “Determinants of job stress and its relationship on employee job performance.” American Journal of Management Science and Engineering 2(1): 1-10.
• Nhemachena, C., et al. (2020). “Climate Change Impacts on Water and Agriculture Sectors in Southern Africa: Threats and Opportunities for Sustainable Development.” Water 12(10): 2673.
• Schilling, J., et al. (2020). “Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa.” Regional Environmental Change 20(1): 1-12.
• Vijayan, M. (2017). “Impact of Job Stress on Employees Job Performance in Aavin, Coimbatore.” Journal of Organisation and Human Behaviour 6(3): 21.

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